I have a great deal of respect for Kenny MacAskill. He has contributed much to this nation’s journey to independence. And so, when the new leader of the Alba party offers a strategy to move forward on that journey, we should listen thoughtfully to what he has to say.
His current position is that all parties who agree on the objective of Scotland being an independent country should say so in their manifestos for next year’s elections, and if between them, they receive a majority of the votes cast, that should be regarded as a mandate for independence.
There are a couple of problems with Alba’s approach, not least for them. All parties, particularly smaller ones, face a hard quest for relevance amidst a competitive political terrain. It is not clear how this strategy provides Alba with any relevance at all.
In essence, if you say it is the sum of votes for different parties that counts, then a vote for any one is just as valid as the other. In such circumstances why would anyone not already inclined to do so vote for Alba. They would simply deny another pro-Indy party their vote; it wouldn’t increase the total.
Unless the suggestion is that Alba is better positioned than others to convert a voter who currently does not support independence. That seems a stretch. Most people on the move from a unionist position would stop off at the first broad based platform they arrive at rather than going all the way over to what many see as a hard independence position.
The main problem though is not that we don’t have a mandate, but that we have no means of executing it. This is where the Alba position is at best misleading. The last Scottish parliament saw a majority of members elected who were pledged to hold another referendum giving the people who live in Scotland a choice on how it should be governed.
The fact that this has not happened is not a willful betrayal by the Scottish government, it is because the Supreme Court has ruled that it would be unlawful. Unless that situation is changed it is hard to see how a new parliament elected on the same mandate takes things forward.
This is where is it naïve to simply suggest that if people vote for parties and candidates who support Scotland’s independence then it will somehow automatically happen. It won’t. Any new parliament, no matter how big the pro-independence majority can still be ignored and dismissed by a UK state hellbent on frustrating Scottish aspirations.
Don’t get me wrong. This is not to say that the SNP should not put the objective of independence front and centre of its campaign for 2026. Indeed, as the Labour government fail to deliver for Scotland, the notion of taking charge of our own affairs will become ever more popular.
Elections in Scotland are always an opportunity for people to express their view on the country’s constitutional future. And mandates are always stronger the fresher they are. But pretending that votes for the objective will make it happen is just a lie. The telling of it will result in yet more disillusion and frustration, not less.
What is needed now is a clear strategy that says how we can change the rules to allow Scottish self determination to take place. That means demanding and fighting for a change in the law the Supreme Court said currently prohibits it. That will require persistent methodical campaigning to raise awareness and demand change invoking every legal, political and social means at our disposal.
This is a challenge to all pro-Indy parties, but the SNP in particular needs to come up with such a plan. Those complaining that last week’s Programme for Government doesn’t mention a strategy for independence are looking in the wrong place. The PfG is about delivering on those things which we can control and if Scottish ministers can build a reputation for competence in those areas, it will undoubtedly help the arguments for self-government.
I presume that this is what John Swinney has in mind when he spoke last week of creating the conditions within which independence can happen. But those conditions must also include setting out a believable strategy as to how people can exercise the right to choose their own future. This is what party members should now be focused on. The National Council scheduled for June 21st is the opportunity to sketch out that plan, finalising the details at our autumn conference.
If we can do that, then we have good reason to ask people who support Scotland’s independence to vote for us next year, and they have good reason to do so. And there’s the rub, because unless the SNP wins those elections and forms the next Holyrood administration then we will spend the next five years stuck in the constitutional chaos of devolution.